The new year is likely to witness peaking out of US Fed’s rate hike and quantitative tightening cycle while inflationary pressure is also expected to cool down. Global macro uncertainties and those relating to the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war could, however, lead to higher volatility.
Given the strong resilience of the Indian economy and the unputdownable belief of domestic investors in the India story, analysts see Nifty zooming past its all-time high of 18,604.45 hit on October 19, 2021.
“The Indian market has been outperforming the global markets as of now and we anticipate a decent rise in the next one year with targets of 20,500-21,000 anticipated since the last one year has been stagnant and with a breakout above 18,600 zone, at least 12%-15% gain is expected,” domestic brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher said.
Citing technical reasons, Kotak Securities believes that the chances of reaching a level above 20,000 for Nifty and 66,000 for Sensex are higher than going to a level of 15,000/51,000 again.
“In the near future, 16,500-16,000/55,000-54,000 will act as a sacrosanct support zone while 18,000-18,500/60,000-61,500 could be the major hurdle zone for the bulls. If the Nifty/Sensex crosses the resistance of 18,500/61,500 then it would move towards 19,500-20,000/64,500-66,000. On the other hand, a 16,000/54,000 dismissal could send the market to the 15,000/51,000 level in the worst case,” the brokerage said.
has one-year target of Nifty at 19,425 (21x FY24 EPS) with sectoral bias towards banks, capital goods/infrastructure, autos, avoiding sectors having more global exposure like IT, oil & gas and metals.
Brokerages cite multi-year economic up-cycle amid stronger macros, minimal impact of Covid, ‘China plus one’ strategy and various government initiatives such as PLI scheme and localisation as key triggers for the market going ahead.
Securities, which has a Nifty target of 20,000 for Samvat 2079, expects the index to deliver around 10% returns by FY23-end.
“The Nifty currently trades at 18.4x FY24E earnings, vs average of 20x. The sustainability of earnings recovery will be a key tailwind for the market for Samvat 2079,” it said.
For Axis Securities, the underlying tone of the market remains bullish with the expected upside of 18,500-19,000 levels in the new year. Major downside supports are placed at 16500-16000 levels, it said.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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